PlanetHolt.com

Illinois is (admittedly only technically… this is all very unlikely) still in the Big Ten Men’s Basketball title hunt. Here’s how it could play out:

Illinois wins out, finishing 13–5 in conference and 21–10 overall. Along the way, they beat Ohio State, who also otherwise win out, beating Penn State and Michigan to finish 13–5 and 23–8. Michigan State wins at Purdue but is beat by either Penn State or Michigan to finish 13–5 and 24–7. In addition to losing to Michigan State, Purdue also loses to Indiana or Penn State, finishing 13–5 and 25–5 overall.

Hypothetical final Big Ten standings (top four teams)

Under these circumstances, we’d have a four-way tie for the regular season title. (Each team would share the title since tiebreaking procedures only apply to the conference tournament seedings, not to the ownership of the title.) So, who’d be seeded where? Teams really want to be in the top three seeds, because in addition to a first-round bye, those teams play the bottom half of the conference in the second round. #4 and #5 get first-round byes, but play each other in the second round—a significant disadvantage.

The Big Ten Conference’s tiebreaking procedures start with head to head regular season records. If I’m reading them right, and I like to think I am, they actually compare the winning percentages of the teams, counting only those games between the tied teams.

Hypothetical Head to Head Results (top four teams)

• Purdue was 2–0 against Illinois
• Purdue split against Ohio State and Michigan State
• Illinois split against Ohio State and Michigan State
• Ohio State was 1–0 against Michigan State

First Tiebreaker: Head to Head (top four teams)

So, the seeding sorts out as follows:

1. Purdue
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan State
4. Illinois

As the #4 seed, Illinois would play the #5 seed—probably Wisconsin. (Due to a quirk in the scheduling, this would be the second consecutive game in which Illinois played Wisconsin.)

Even better would be Michigan State or Ohio State losing two games, or Purdue completely falling apart and losing three (or four) games down the stretch. In those situations, Illinois could move up in the seedings. Barring a complete collapse by all three teams, there is little chance of us taking the #1 seed—the tiebreaking procedures seem to preclude it.

A More Realistic Scenario

It’s unlikely that Illinois will beat Ohio State, Purdue will lose to Michigan State and Indiana or Penn State, and Michigan State will lose to Michigan or Penn State. So what happens if the favorites win the games they should down the stretch?

Illinois has games remaining against Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. We should beat Minnesota at home and Ohio State should beat us in Columbus. We beat Wisconsin in Madison, so I like to think we should beat them in Champaign, but the “experts” say Wisconsin is likely to win that one. So, we finish either 12–6 or 11–7 in Big Ten play.

Purdue goes to Minnesota and Penn State and gets Michigan State and Indiana at home. They’re likely to win all four of those games, although I expect both Michigan State and Indiana to be good games. Purdue finishes 15–3 and takes the outright Big Ten title.

Michigan State goes to Purdue but gets Penn State and Michigan at home. They lose to Purdue and take care of business against the other two, finishing 13–5.

Ohio State goes to Penn State and gets Michigan and Illinois at home. They should win out, finishing 14–4.

Wisconsin goes to Indiana and Illinois and gets Iowa at home. They’ll either go 2–1 or 3–0, finishing 12–6 or 13–5.

Hypothetical final Big Ten standings (top five teams—Illinois beats Wisconsin)

So, Purdue would be the #1 seed, Ohio State the #2, and Michigan State the #3. If Illinois wins both meetings, we’d take the #4 seed, leaving #5 for Wisconsin. If Wisconsin wins in Champaign, they’ll finish 13–5, and things get a little more interesting.

Wisconsin and Michigan State would then both be 13–5 in Big Ten play. They split their regular season games, with both teams winning convincingly at home. The second tiebreaker is each team’s record against the top finisher in the conference. Wisconsin split with Purdue, and we’ve assumed that Michigan State will lose a second time to Purdue down the stretch. This gives Wisconsin the advantage, putting them in the #3 seed and dropping Michigan State to #4, where they’d play Illinois in their first game of the Big Ten tournament.

Hypothetical final Big Ten standings (top five teams—Wisconsin beats Illinois)

Teams for whom to Cheer

Say the Illini win out. They could get major help from Penn State and Michigan, both of whom play Ohio State and Michigan State. Penn State also plays Purdue. It’s going to take these teams winning a game or two for Illinois to move up to one of the top three seeds.

Other Basketball Notes

Congrats to the Ridgewood Lady Spartans, who advanced to the Illinois Final Four with their win Monday in Bloomington. This is the first time since 1995 that an AlWood team has made it that far in an IHSA tournament. The Ridgewood girls were ranked #3 going into the postseason, behind #1 Brimfield and #2 Hinckley-Big Rock High School. (Defending champs Hinckley happen to be Ridgewood’s semifinals opponent.) Best of luck to the Lady Spartans, who will play Friday and Saturday to decide the state’s top four teams.